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Market Update - June 28, 2024

Friday, June 28, 2024

This Market Update is written by our Capital Market specialists each week to bring you insight into what's happening in the market and how it may affect mortgage rates and real estate trends.

Rates are provided by Housing Wire in conjunction with Polly. Rates are updated in real-time. Polly data is calculated using actual locked rates. Rates are inclusive of locks that occur below par, at par and therefore consider discounts and rebates.
Market Commentary:

For the week of June 21st to June 27th, interest rates improved slightly. Per Freddie Mac, as inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's target rate of 2%, an immediate cut in the federal fund rates is not on the horizon. However, in a scenario where the job market cools sufficiently to keep inflation in check, we anticipate one rate cut in the latter half of the year. This potential scenario could lead to a gradual easing of mortgage rates. We expect mortgage rates to remain above 6.5% through the end of the year, which compared to the rates as high as 7.8% witnessed last year is a positive development and could offer some respite for potential homebuyers.

Fed Watch: Target rate (in bps) possibilities, according to the CME Group:

Graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com

Market Review: Optimal Blue's Production Metrics:

Inflationary Income

Perhaps the key reason surveys of consumer sentiment are so lousy is the impact of inflation, or more accurately the cumulative rise in prices from 2021. What gets lost is even though real wages fell behind inflation in 2021 and 2022, for almost two years average wages have been gaining on inflation, and real wages are now higher, on average, than pre-pandemic. - Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. , Economist

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